Pedro C. Magalhães, “Procedural Fairness and Economic Voting ” (November 24th, 2.30pm).

Pedro Magalhães presents. Here’s the abstract:

“To explain the unstable relationship in the function relating economic conditions with the vote for the incumbent, several authors focus on the fact that incumbents control the economy to different extents. The prevalent view, broadly supported by evidence, is that lower control means lower responsibility for outcomes, which leads to blurred economic voting. We provide an alternative account for this instability. Based on a literature originating in social and organizational psychology, we propose that voting for the incumbent, as well as the strength of the relationship between economic outcomes and voting, are affected by the extent to which voters perceive decision-making as procedurally fair, i.e, it abides by rules of transparency and impartiality. Based on a sample of more than 20 OECD countries covering 20 years of elections, we conclude that the contingent nature of the relationship between the economy and political support derives from the fact that voters weigh economic performance differently depending on their perceptions of procedural fairness in governance. We conduct extensive robustness tests, including the use of post-election survey data.”

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