Ignacio, from Universitat Pompeu Fabra, presented his and Mariano’s paper on electoral volatility and party system institutionalization. Here’s the abstract:
“A new theoretical development for examining the institutionalization of party systems is proposed in this paper. We build on electoral coordination theories to disaggregate volatility into the vote transfers that occur between or towards parties that are in equilibrium (which we call endogenous volatility) and those that are not (exogenous volatility). The former captures accountability, and the latter reflects the number of voters who are acting in accordance with the existing equilibrium in the party system. Exogenous volatility measures the institutionalization of party systems. We show that endogenous volatility depends on government performance, while exogenous volatility is a function of institutional openness. The empirical evidence comes from an original data set that includes 448 electoral cycles in lower-house elections in 66 countries between 1977 and 2011.”
Key Words: Accountability; Coordination; Equilibrium; Party System Institutionalization, Volatility.