Pedro Vicente (Nova SBE): “Reaching to the People: Conflict Prevention in Resource-rich Mozambique”

Pedro Vicente (Nova SBE): “Reaching to the People: Conflict Prevention in Resource-rich Mozambique”. Here follows the abstract: 

“In this seminar we will discuss conflict prevention in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, guided by a sequence of experimental and quasi-experimental studies. In the first study (Armand, Coutts, Vicente, and Vilela, 2020) we analyze the impact of an information campaign on the management of natural resources and find that the campaign reduced conflict around treated villages in the first year of the insurgency, possibly through mobilization of communities. In the second study (Vicente and Vilela, 2022) we assess the impact of religious sensitization against violence in mosques and find that it reduced antisocial behavior as measured in a lab-in-the-field game. Finally, we report on a third study (Armand, Vicente, and Vilela, 2024) that follows a radio campaign based on religious sensitization against violence and find that it reduced violence but increased fear in the population. Reaching to the people with information and involving local organizations, namely those representing the Muslim community, could be an effective conflict-prevention strategy in Cabo Delgado.”

Lorenzo Piccoli (European University Institute), James Dennison (European University Institute), and Mariana Carmo Duarte (ICS-ULisboa): “Migration Communication Campaigns Database”

Mariana Carmo Duarte (ICS-ULisboa) has presented the co-authored project/dataset titled: “Migration Communication Campaigns Database“. Below are the links for: 

Database: https://migrationpolicycentre.eu/migration-communication-campaigns-dataset/home/

Codebook: https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/76561

Report: https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/60700/file/Migration%2520communication%2520campaigns.pdf

Nelson Santos (University of Namur), Sofia Serra-Silva (ICS-ULisboa) and Tiago Casal Silva (ICS-ULisboa): “The (quiet) metamorphosis of the Portuguese Parliament: Consensus and Conflict before and after the arrival of new party players”

Nelson Santos, Sofia Serra-Silva and Tiago Casal Silva, have presented a paper entitled: “The (quiet) metamorphosis of the Portuguese Parliament: Consensus and Conflict before and after the arrival of new party players”. Here follows the abstract: 

“

This study examines voting patterns within the Portuguese Parliament from 2002 to 2024, with a particular focus on the recent impact of two new parties on the right wing of the political landscape. These parties, one radical-right and one liberal-libertarian, have solidified their positions in parliament recently and significantly altered the political landscape. We leverage parliamentary voting data and computer-assisted text analysis techniques to examine two key aspects: (1) the evolution of consensus and disagreement over time, and (2) the specific policy areas with the most pronounced disagreements. Our unique dataset reveals a decline in consensus-based politics, particularly after the consolidation of the new parties in the 2022 legislative term. Disagreement levels following their entry surpass even those observed during the 2009-2011 economic recession. This increased polarization is further amplified by heightened antagonism between the two main parties, exceeding even the austerity period (2011-2015). Moreover, our findings suggest that the far-right party significantly impacts specific policy areas, further exacerbating parliamentary divisions. These results highlight the role of emerging right-
wing political forces in fueling polarization within the Portuguese Parliament.”

António Valentim (Yale University – MacMillan Center): “Repeated Exposure and Protest Outcomes: How Fridays for Future Prostests Influenced Voters”

António Valentim, from Yale University, has presented a paper entitled: “Repeated Exposure and Protest Outcomes: How Fridays for Future Prostests Influenced Voters”. Here follows the abstract: 

“Do climate protests have electoral consequences? When do political protests influence citizens’ behaviour? In this paper, I build on social-psychological work to argue that a key characteristic of effective protests is their capability to repeatedly expose voters to their message. I test this argument by studying the effect of Fridays for Future (FFF) protests on voting for Green Parties. Using a novel dataset on FFF protests in Germany, and a difference-in-differences design, I find that exposure to climate
protests increases the vote share of the Greens, and that repeated exposure to protests increases this effect. Additional analyses suggest that repeated exposure persuades voters of FFF’s policy positions, and that these effects travel to other countries, but not to other environmental-friendly behaviours. Overall, these results are important to understand when and how protests are influential, as well as to understand the political consequences of climate protests.”

Filipa Madeira (ICS-ULisboa): “Unraveling Historical Legacies: How Colonial Ideologies Shape Present-Day Attitudes toward Immigration Policies”

Filipa Madeira, from ICS-ULisboa, has presented a paper entitled: “Unraveling Historical Legacies: How Colonial Ideologies Shape Present-Day Attitudes toward Immigration Policies”. Here follows the abstract: 

“This study explores the social-psychological and ideological mechanisms underlying preferences for discriminatory migration policies, particularly ethnicist-based criteria. Specifically, we propose that how individuals support assimilationism and multiculturalism better reflects the underlying ideologies that promote positive national distinctiveness (PND). Building on social dominance theory, we introduce colonial ideological beliefs, as a critical factor shaping attitudes towards immigrants. Our model proposes a sequential mediation, where social dominance orientation (SDO) predicts colonial ideology, leading to the endorsement of national positive distinctiveness (NPD) ideologies, ultimately influencing ethnicist-based discriminatory attitudes (ECA). In a study with a sample of 160 Portuguese individuals, we measured SDO, colonial ideologies, operationalized PND based on individuals’ patterns of combined support for multiculturalism and assimilationism, and ECA. The results reveal that colonial ideology and PND serially mediate the relationship between SDO and ECA. That is, the findings indicated that the higher the SDO, the greater the individuals supported colonial ideology, which positively predicted the PND and ultimately ECA. This research offers novel insights into the role played by past representations of colonialism on present-day attitudes toward diversity and immigration policies in postcolonial societies. It highlights the role of colonial ideological beliefs and PND ideologies in shaping discriminatory attitudes towards immigrants, and contributes to understanding how ideologies about colonialism perpetuate contemporary social inequality.”

Edalina Rodrigues Sanches (ICS-ULisboa): “Popular Protest, Political Opportunities and Change in Africa”.

This seminar was a joint venture with CIES-ISCTE Social Movements and Political Action series, organized by Guya Accornero and Tiago Carvalho. This seminar was a discussion of the book edited by Edalina Rodrigues Sanches (ICS-ULisboa): “Popular Protest, Political Opportunities and Change in Africa”, and had Zachariah Mampilly (University of New York), María Ángeles Hervás (Universidad Loyola), and Oscar Mateos (Ramon Llull University) as (online) guest speakers. Here follows the description of the book: 

“This book offers a fresh analysis of third wave popular protests in Africa, shedding light on the complex dynamics between political change and continuity in contemporary Africa.

The book argues that protests are simultaneously products and generators of change in that they are triggered by micro-and-macrosocial changes, but they also have the capacity to transform the nature of politics. By examining the triggers, actors, political opportunities, resources, and framing strategies, the contributors shed light onto tangible (e.g. policy implementation, liberal reforms, political alternation) and intangible (e.g. perceptions, imagination, awareness) forms of change elicited by protests. It reveals the relevant role of African protests as engines of democracy, accountability, and collective knowledge.

Bringing popular protests in authoritarian and democratic settings into discussion, this book will be of interest to scholars of African politics, democracy, and protest movements.”

Democracy Talks Series: “Corruption and Ethics in Politics”.

This seminar was the first of a series of talks about the state of Portuguese democracy, organized jointly with RIGOP and OQD, as part of the celebrations of the 25th of April. This seminar, about corruption and ethics in politics, has featured Luís de Sousa (ICS-ULisboa) as moderator and Susana Coroado (University of Antwerp), Teresa Violante (Friedrich‑Alexander‑Universität Erlangen‑Nürnberg and CEDIS, Nova Law) and João Paulo Batalha (Frente Cívica) as guest speakers. 

 

Gonçalo Freitas (ICS-ULisboa): “The social identity nature of populism: The situational effect of populist speeches on national identification”

Gonçalo Freitas, from ICS-ULisboa, has presented a paper entitled: “The social identity nature of populism: The situational effect of populist speeches on national identification”. Here follows the abstract: 

“Following multidisciplinary contributions to the study of populism, studies in Social Psychology have consistently showed that national collective narcissism leads to populism support. Following Social Identity tradition, we focus on the complementary causal effect, hypothesising that the situational exposure to populist (vs. non-populist) speeches leads to increased salience of national identification. We conducted two pre-tests in order to select materials to test our hypothesis. We started by selecting six populist and non-populist speeches from the Global Populism Database and sectioned them into 6-8 sentences. Another two speeches were artificially constructed. In Pre-test 1, Portuguese political scientists (n = 35) differentiated these speeches as to the presence of populist dimensions (i.e., anti-elitist, Manichean, and popular sovereignty). In Pre-test 2 (n = 69), with a lay sample, the results showed that the populist speech is indeed perceived as more populist than the non-populist one, although it does not lead to a greater adherence to populist attitudes. Study 1 (n = 150) showed that the exposure to the populist speech (versus non-populist speech) does make national identification more salient, and especially for participants with medium and high prior levels of populist attitudes. The results are discussed in articulation with the socio-cognitive aspects of group identification and its contribute to the description of an identity-populism reinforcing loop.”

Patrícia Calca (Iscte-IUL): “Executive-Legislative Relations in Parliamentary Systems: Policy-Making and Legislative Processes”

Patrícia Calca, from IIscte-IUL, has presented her newly published book entitled: “Patrícia Calca (Iscte-IUL): “Executive-Legislative Relations in Parliamentary Systems: Policy-Making and Legislative Processes””. Here follows the abstract of the final chapter of the book: 

“This final chapter concludes the book that started with the question: Under which conditions is a government more likely to present an executive law or a government bill? Here, I underline the approach used in the book that combines several branches of literature, a theory developed in the formal model, the choice and characterisation of the Portuguese case, the data coding and respective empirical testing of the theory. My findings reinforce the notion that in political systems where one of the political actors has veto power that can be overridden, what matters for government choice of legislative instrument, and consequently legislative path, is the majority in parliament. My expectations were confirmed, as when a government does not have a majority in parliament and/or does not have the president on its side (minority and weak government scenarios) it is more likely to propose an executive law. The government will more likely propose a government bill when it has a majority in parliament and/or the president is aligned with it (majority and strong government scenarios).”