Nelson Santos, Sofia Serra-Silva and Tiago Casal Silva, have presented a paper entitled: “The (quiet) metamorphosis of the Portuguese Parliament: Consensus and Conflict before and after the arrival of new party players”. Here follows the abstract:
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This study examines voting patterns within the Portuguese Parliament from 2002 to 2024, with a particular focus on the recent impact of two new parties on the right wing of the political landscape. These parties, one radical-right and one liberal-libertarian, have solidified their positions in parliament recently and significantly altered the political landscape. We leverage parliamentary voting data and computer-assisted text analysis techniques to examine two key aspects: (1) the evolution of consensus and disagreement over time, and (2) the specific policy areas with the most pronounced disagreements. Our unique dataset reveals a decline in consensus-based politics, particularly after the consolidation of the new parties in the 2022 legislative term. Disagreement levels following their entry surpass even those observed during the 2009-2011 economic recession. This increased polarization is further amplified by heightened antagonism between the two main parties, exceeding even the austerity period (2011-2015). Moreover, our findings suggest that the far-right party significantly impacts specific policy areas, further exacerbating parliamentary divisions. These results highlight the role of emerging right-
wing political forces in fueling polarization within the Portuguese Parliament.”
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